Portfolio Managers Emma Fisher and Ray David provide a quarterly update on the Airlie Australian Share Fund. Emma also shares her takeaways from a recent US trip, including the AI infrastructure build-out, pressure on interest rate-sensitive sectors and the case for patience with cyclicals such as James Hardie.
Date Recorded: 7 October 2026
Ray presents the investment case for the new position in Dyno Nobel and outlines Airlie’s view on the Firmus IPO.
Key takeaways
- Emma believes single-stock volatility is here to stay. After an AI-driven repricing in February and a calmer August, the ASX 200 fell 2.4% in September as global bond yields spiked, and the portfolio fared worse as cyclical winners such as resources pulled back.
- CSL was re-entered in early August after being exited earlier in the year. Anecdotal feedback from various quarters suggested CSL had turned the corner in immunoglobulin (IG), which generates approximately 40% of its revenue.
- Dyno Nobel is a new position, supported by tight supply, improving demand, a growing defence earnings stream and a refreshed management team. Its $800 million EBIT target for 2031 implies a multiple of about 10 times, compared with 16–17 times for the average industrial.
- Emma’s US trip showed AI-related capex is largely insensitive to interest rates, while consumers and rate-sensitive sectors are under pressure. Airlie remains patient on cyclicals such as James Hardie, where earnings can recover strongly when the cycle turns.
- Airlie does not see an attractive risk/reward in the Firmus IPO, citing customer concentration, a highly geared balance sheet, an unproven management track record and uncertainty over GPU values beyond contract terms.
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